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# Temporal Arbitrage: The Core Thesis
Binary prediction markets are reactive systems. Their prices update based on incoming order flow — not on direct oracle feeds. This creates a fundamental delay between when external reality changes (BTC price moves) and when the market price reflects it.
## How the window opens
When external price moves occur, Polymarket doesn't reprice instantly. There is a measurable delay — a window where the displayed probability lags the true one. PolyGoat exists to operate inside that window.
## The theorem
In 5-minute BTC markets the repricing lag typically ranges from **2 to 25 seconds** depending on market activity. PolyGoat's 142ms execution means the system enters at the beginning of that lag — capturing the full spread before it closes.
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